Community Spread of COVID-19: Why Stealth Transmissions Should be our Biggest Worry

Community Spread of COVID-19: Why Stealth Transmissions Should be our Worry

Coronavirus is a stealthy little bastard. A Slytherin of a disease, if you will, with a highly developed sense of self-preservation. It is lurking just about everywhere right now, replicating and spreading like we've never seen before. It's very survival as a species depends on how fast it replicates and spreads. As days turn into weeks, and weeks into months, the number of confirmed cases in Kenya will most definitely rise. This is not some sort of doomsday prediction, but a realization of the nature and extent of the threat we are faced with as a people. From the onset, the government and health officials have been waxing lyrical about the need for social distancing, and how it helps in the fight against the virus. However, to many Kenyans, such advice has been akin to singing opera music to goats. It simply means nothing to them. Zilch! Nada! Now, this is where we get it wrong as a people, and in hindsight, I hope we don’t get to the point where we wish we had listened to the government and expert advice.

Perhaps Kenyans are not taking things seriously because they think the virus is somewhat far away from them. Some believe, wrongly though, that only people who have had direct contact with people traveling from the so-called epicenters are the only ones who should be worried. Well, let me burst your perceived safety bubble. There is a little thing known as “community spread.” These are cases where a patient develops symptoms and becomes ill from unknown infected persons with whom she had come into contact. You see, COVID-19 confirmed cases globally can fall into one of the three categories: imported cases in travelers; cases among close contacts of a known case; and community-acquired cases where the source of the infection is unknown. The WHO’s position on community spread, however, reads thus “we don’t see evidence yet that the virus is spreading freely in communities. As long as that is the case, we still have a chance of containing the virus” (WHO). Well, the WHO main focus right now is to calm people down, and to avoid panic, and you can understand why they maintain such a position. Evidence, however, points to many cases of community spread around the world. Methinks it’s just a matter of time before we start reporting similar cases in Kenya. In the U.S, 27 seven states have already reported cases of community spread of COVID-19. SEVEN!

I started off this piece by calling COVID-19 a stealthy little bastard. It's true, this virus is a nasty faceless assassin that lurks around every corner you turn. Just imagine it for a second. An imported case is confirmed positive, then he or she infects others who infect others, say up to the 10^th cycle. As you can imagine, It takes just one Typhoid Mary to have a ripple effect in the entire population with an exponential rise of cases. This should be a big public health worry because it would mean that there are hundreds or even thousands of people in the communities who are infected, but with no signs and symptoms at all. These are the guys who become reservoirs for community spread.

There are a number of reasons why community spread could become an even bigger threat to the Kenyan population. It’s always “flu season” in Kenya, and people have accustomed to such symptoms; treating them very casually. Influenza and the common cold have symptoms similar to COVID-19. Indeed, flu and colds remain likely the culprit for most current respiratory diseases in Kenya. So, against the backdrop of so many cold and flu cases, the new coronavirus will be hard to detect.

The government, through the ministry of health, has consistently told Kenyans that we should brace for the possibility of more confirmed positive cases. This is no idle talk, guys; we are staring at a possibility of multiple cases. The next two weeks will determine our fate as a nation on the matter of coronavirus. If we continue showing behaviors that we have shown in the past; like ignoring the advisory on social distancing and praying over the virus (such morons), instead of following the science, we will most positively be doomed. As we stand today, if health officials conducted more tests, they will probably find more cases.

The community spread means that the virus is all around us. Your own child could have it. Your parents could have it. Your boss or colleague could have the disease. Right now, it’s better to treat anyone around you as though they were a “walking culture medium” incubating the virus, ready to spread. Until the disease is contained and, and some sort of cure or vaccine found, let’s practice social distancing and avoid unnecessary contacts.

As a nation, and a people, we have demonstrated what I would like to call “herd idiocy.” Collectively, and worryingly so, we have ignored the advice on social distancing, proper hygiene and washing of hands; instead, we have resorted to sensationalizing and creating memes on coronavirus, further trivializing the calls to take the disease seriously.  Well, we live in depressing times, and memes may be our ways of venting our stresses. While at it, however, it is better if we remember to keep safety precautions that would help keep the virus at bay. I must admit that our collective social behaviors as a people have also been the direct consequence of a weak, timid government refusing to make proper decisions. Things like cancellation of flights, complete closure of social joints, including churches should have come when the first case was announced. 

Now, we continue to stumble blindly and recklessly into a total disaster.Together, and with conscious efforts to stay safe, we can prove one thing: that we are not a bunch of dumb lemmings led by spineless sheep.





Yours Truly,
J.J.Omollo.